Weekly Recap: April 6–10, 2026 — CPI Cools, Banks Beat, and Markets Rally

The Week Wall Street Was Waiting For

This was the most consequential week for markets since the Fed's March meeting — and it delivered on every front. The March CPI report came in cooler than expected, major bank earnings beat consensus, and the S&P 500 responded with its best weekly gain since mid-February.

If you read our Week Ahead preview, you knew exactly what was at stake. Here's how it played out.

CPI Report: The Cool Print Markets Needed

The Numbers

• Headline CPI (MoM): +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected, +0.3% prior) ✅
• Headline CPI (YoY): +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected, +2.6% prior) ✅
• Core CPI (MoM): +0.2% (vs. +0.2% expected — in line)
• Core CPI (YoY): +2.9% (vs. +3.0% expected, +3.1% prior) ✅

Why It Matters

This was the "cool print" scenario we outlined — and markets responded exactly as predicted. Core CPI breaking below 3.0% year-over-year for the first time since 2021 is a psychological milestone. It validates the Fed's "patient" approach and substantially increases the probability of a September rate cut.

Category Breakdown

• Shelter/Rent: +0.3% MoM — finally decelerating from the 0.4-0.5% range. The stickiest component is softening. This is the signal the Fed has been waiting for.
• Used Cars: -0.7% MoM — Manheim Index weakness is flowing through. Deflationary contributor.
• Energy: -1.4% MoM — gasoline prices fell, dragging headline below core. Seasonal and OPEC-influenced.
• Services ex-Shelter (Supercore): +0.2% MoM — the Fed's preferred measure continues its descent. Now at 3.4% annualized, down from 4.1% in January.

Rate Cut Implications

CME FedWatch shifted dramatically post-CPI:

• September cut probability: 62% → 78% ↑↑
• July cut probability: 15% → 28% ↑ (emerging as live meeting)
• Year-end rate expectations: Two cuts now priced as base case (vs. 1-2 pre-CPI)

Earnings Season Kickoff: Banks Deliver

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — Beat on All Metrics

• EPS: $4.63 vs. $4.17 expected (+11% beat)
• Revenue: $44.2B vs. $42.8B expected (+3.3% beat)
• Net Interest Income: $23.4B — above guidance, rate tailwind continues
• Investment Banking: +27% YoY — IPO and M&A pipeline recovery confirmed
• Credit Quality: Net charge-offs up 12% but within expected range. No CRE fire alarm.

Jamie Dimon's Take: Called the economy "fundamentally sound but entering a transition phase." Maintained cautious optimism while flagging geopolitical risks and the lag effect of higher rates on consumer spending. Market read this as constructive — JPM stock rose 3.2% on the day.

Wells Fargo (WFC) — Mixed but Enough

• EPS: $1.39 vs. $1.24 expected (+12% beat)
• Revenue: $20.9B vs. $20.3B expected (+2.9% beat)
• NII: Down 4% YoY as expected — deposit costs rising
• Efficiency Ratio: Improved to 63.2% from 66.8% — cost-cutting showing results
• Asset Cap: No update on removal timeline, but management sounded optimistic

Consumer lending trends were the mixed bag: mortgage originations up 15% (housing activity recovering) but credit card delinquencies ticked up 30bps. Not alarming yet, but worth monitoring. WFC stock rose 1.8%.

BlackRock (BLK) — Record AUM

• AUM: $11.6 trillion — new record
• Net Inflows: $96B in Q1 — massive, led by ETF flows
• Revenue: +12% YoY — fee revenue scaling with AUM

The Larry Fink signal: institutional investors are deploying capital aggressively into equities and alternatives. Fixed income ETFs saw $38B in inflows alone — the rate-cut trade is building.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — Solid Quarter

• Revenue: $100.8B (+8% YoY) — first $100B quarter in healthcare history
• Medical Cost Ratio: 84.3% — slightly above expectations, Medicaid redeterminations still pressuring
• Optum Health: +14% revenue growth — value-based care model delivering

Market Performance: S&P Rallies

Index Performance (Week of April 6–10)

• S&P 500: +2.4% (best week since Feb 14) — broke above 5,250 resistance
• NASDAQ Composite: +3.1% — tech outperformance on rate-cut optimism
• Dow Jones: +1.9% — financials and healthcare contributed
• Russell 2000: +2.8% — small caps rallied hard on rate sensitivity

Sector Winners

• Real Estate (REITs): +4.2% — rate-sensitive sectors ripped on CPI
• Technology: +3.5% — growth stocks love lower rates
• Financials: +2.9% — earnings beats + rate clarity = tailwind
• Small Cap Growth: +3.8% — duration-sensitive names repriced

Sector Laggards

• Energy: +0.4% — oil flat, missed the broader rally
• Utilities: +1.1% — defensive rotation unwound
• Consumer Staples: +0.8% — defensive names lagged cyclicals

Market Indicators Dashboard

• VIX: 13.2 (down from 14.8 — fear dissipated post-CPI)
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.18% (dropped 14bps on the week — huge move)
• 2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.52% (dropped 18bps — rate cut pricing accelerated)
• WTI Crude Oil: $78.80/barrel (+0.5% — range-bound)
• Gold: $2,310/oz (+1.3% — lower real yields boost gold)
• USD Index (DXY): 103.8 (down 0.8% — dollar weakened on rate cut expectations)
• Put/Call Ratio: 0.74 (bullish tilt — but not extreme)

Economic Data Recap

Monday — Consumer Credit

February consumer credit rose $14.1B — credit card debt growth is slowing from Q4's pace. Mixed signal: consumers still borrowing but more cautiously.

Tuesday — NFIB Small Business Optimism

Dropped to 97.4 from 100.7 — tariff uncertainty and cost pressures weighing on small business outlook. Worth watching but not market-moving.

Wednesday — FOMC Minutes

The March meeting minutes revealed more debate about rate cuts than the statement suggested. Several members noted that "the disinflationary process, while uneven, remains intact." Market interpreted this as more dovish than expected — and then Thursday's CPI confirmed it.

Friday — PPI + Michigan Sentiment

• PPI (March): +0.1% MoM (vs. +0.2% expected) — producer prices also soft, confirming the disinflationary trend. Good sign for margins.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim): 78.4 (vs. 79.0 expected) — slight miss, but inflation expectations component dropped to 2.8% (lowest since 2021). Consumer inflation psychology is normalizing.

What Our Week Ahead Preview Got Right

In our April 6 preview, we outlined three CPI scenarios. The "cool print" scenario played out almost exactly:

• ✅ Core YoY broke below 3.0% (came in at 2.9%)
• ✅ September cut probability jumped to ~78% (we predicted ~75%)
• ✅ Tech and growth stocks rallied (NASDAQ +3.1%)
• ✅ 10-year yield dropped below 4.25% (hit 4.18%)

We also flagged bank earnings as the macro bellwether — JPMorgan's credit quality commentary confirmed the soft landing narrative, and investment banking revenue confirmed capital markets recovery.

What to Watch Next Week

• Monday, April 13: Earnings continue — Goldman Sachs (GS), Charles Schwab (SCHW)
• Tuesday, April 14: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
• Wednesday, April 15: Retail Sales (March) — consumer spending check post-CPI. ASML Holdings earnings.
• Thursday, April 16: Netflix (NFLX) — first mega-cap tech to report. Housing Starts data.
• Friday, April 17: American Express (AXP), Procter & Gamble (PG) — consumer read

Key theme next week: The inflation narrative is settled (for now). Attention shifts fully to earnings quality and forward guidance. The market wants confirmation that corporate America can grow earnings even as the economy decelerates. The bar is set high after this week's bank beats — can the rest of the S&P 500 deliver?

The WallStreet.AI View

This was a "goldilocks week" — inflation cooling, earnings beating, and the Fed on a clear path to cuts. But the easy gains may be behind us. With the S&P 500 above 5,250 and the VIX at 13.2, markets are pricing in a lot of good news. Any earnings disappointment from tech (Netflix next Thursday) or a geopolitical surprise could snap the complacency.

Our framework for next week:

1. Stay invested but disciplined. The trend is your friend, but don't chase extended names.
2. Watch earnings guidance closely. Q2 forward estimates matter more than Q1 backward results.
3. Rotate, don't retreat. If you're overweight tech, consider trimming into rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, small caps) that have more room to run on cut expectations.

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